PRQ03682 – Consultancy Services for Undertaking a Climate Risk Assessment.

TERMS OF REFERENCE (ToR)

Eligible to CONSULTING FIRMS ONLY.

Bids submitted by individuals will be rejected.

Terms of Reference (TOR) for climate risk assessment in Kenya’s agricultural sector

1. About MESPT

Micro Enterprises Support Programme Trust (MESPT) is a development organization focused on enhancing Agricultural Productivity, Food Safety, Agricultural Business Development, Market Linkages, Increased Financial Access & Inclusion and Green Transformation within the Agricultural sector. MESPT desires to contribute towards creation of green decent jobs and improve competitiveness and socio-economic sustainability among stakeholders and more so the Small Holder Farmers (SHFs), Farmer Producer and marketing Co-operatives and Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs).

MESPT is mandated to support sustainable economic growth and development of Small Holder Farmers, Farmer Producer and Marketing Co-operatives, Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs) in the Agricultural and Green Growth sectors, through a value chain approach and offers sustainable credit either directly or through financial service providers (FSPs) for alleviation of poverty, improved business competitiveness, creation of decent jobs and promotion of Green Transformation at enterprise and household levels.

The Trust’s Credit and Business Development function focuses on supporting and providing integrated financial and business development services for Small Holder Farmers (SHFs), Micro Small Medium Enterprises (MSMEs), Farmer Co-operatives and Financial Services Providers (FSPs) in Kenya. This is aimed at enabling beneficiaries to access finance, increase agricultural productivity, agro-processing, access markets/ trade opportunities, create decent jobs and promote increased investment in green transformation interventions.

1. Background and Context

Climate change poses a growing risk to economies, communities, and ecosystems. Its impacts undermine long-term development goals, especially in sectors vulnerable to extreme weather and changing climate patterns. To address these risks, there is an increasing focus on integrating climate risk adaptation in smallholder agriculture, financing and investment decisions.

This consultancy is required to assess the climate risks faced by MESPT and its key sectors/regions of focus, and to generate a clear roadmap to increase resilience in agricultural productivity and facilitate access to climate finance for adaptation and mitigation efforts. The assessment will provide essential data and insights to inform decision-making for climate-resilient investments and the mobilization of climate funds.

2. Objectives

The primary objectives of the climate risk assessment are:

• Identify and analyze current and projected climate risks affecting Kenya’s agricultural productivity and sustainability
• Assess the vulnerability of key crops, livestock, and farming systems to these risks.
• Evaluate existing adaptation strategies and their effectiveness in mitigating identified risks.
• Recommend actionable measures to enhance resilience and adaptive capacity within the agriculture sector.
• Provide an overview of available climate financing mechanisms and recommend the most suitable ones.
• Develop a climate risk mitigation and adaptation strategy, with particular focus on Agriculture and Climate financing options.

3. Scope of Work

The consultant will undertake the following tasks:

Climate Risk Assessment

• Data Collection: Gather relevant data on climate variability, projected climate impacts, sectoral vulnerabilities, and existing climate-related risks from both national and international sources.

• Climate Modelling: Utilize climate models and projections to assess future climate scenarios for the agricultural sector.

• Risk Identification: Identify and categorize key climate risks and vulnerabilities for sectors (e.g., agriculture, water, infrastructure, health).

• Vulnerability Mapping: Map vulnerable regions, communities, and critical infrastructure exposed to climate-related risks.

• Impact Analysis: Assess the potential economic, social, and environmental impacts of these climate risks.

  Policy and Institutional Review

• Policy Analysis: Review existing climate-related policies, strategies, and programs at the national and local levels.

• Institutional Framework: Evaluate the roles and capacity of institutions responsible for climate risk management, adaptation, and financing.

• Gap Analysis: Identify gaps in existing climate risk management frameworks and policies.

  Climate Financing Assessment

• Climate Finance Landscape: Provide an overview of the current landscape of climate financing mechanisms (e.g., Green Climate Fund, Adaptation Fund, private sector investments, international development finance).

• Access Criteria: Analyze the eligibility criteria and access requirements for various climate financing sources.

• Strategy for Financing: Develop a strategy to enhance access to climate financing, including recommendations on policy adjustments, institutional improvements, and project preparation.

  Climate Risk Mitigation and Adaptation Strategy

• Adaptation Measures: Recommend specific adaptation measures to address the identified risks, with a focus on enhancing agricultural and livestock resilience and sustainability.

• Risk Mitigation: Propose mitigation actions that can reduce greenhouse gas emissions and contribute to sustainable agricultural and livestock development.

• Integration with National Plans: Ensure the recommendations align with national climate action plans and international commitments (e.g., NDCs, SDGs).

4. Specific tasks to be undertaken

• Reviewing existing literature on climate risks in Kenyan agriculture.
• Analyzing historical climate data and future projections to assess potential impacts on agriculture.
• Assessing the availability and accessibility of green financing options for farmers and agribusinesses.
• Identifying barriers to effective utilization of green financing in the agricultural sector.
• Engaging with stakeholders, including government agencies, financial institutions, and farming communities, to gather insights and validate findings.

5. Methodology

The assessment will employ a mixed-methods approach:

• Data Collection: Compilation of meteorological data, agricultural production statistics, and socioeconomic information.
• Climate Modeling: Utilization of downscaled climate models to project future climate scenarios specific to Kenya.
• Risk Analysis: Application of tools such as the Agricultural Risk Assessment framework to identify and prioritize risks.
• Use of GIS: Utilizing Geographic Information Systems (GIS) for spatial analysis of climate impacts.
• Stakeholder Engagement: Conducting qualitative assessments through interviews and focus group discussions with key stakeholders.
• Benchmarking: Benchmarking against best practices in climate risk assessment and green financing from comparable regions.

6. Report Preparation and Presentation

• Interim Reports: Submit progress reports at key stages of the assignment (data collection, analysis, strategy formulation).
• Final Report: Prepare and submit a comprehensive final report detailing:
  • Overview of climate risks and vulnerabilities
  • Assessment of the policy and institutional environment
  • Climate financing opportunities and strategies
  • Recommended climate risk mitigation and adaptation measures.
• Presentations: Present findings to key stakeholders, including government officials, development partners, and private sector representatives.

7. Deliverables

1. Inception Report: Including detailed work plan, methodology, and approach.

2. Interim Report(s): Regular updates and drafts on progress, findings, and initial recommendations.

3. Final Report: A comprehensive document detailing the findings of the climate risk assessment, financing strategy, and adaptation/mitigation measures.

4. Climate Financing Strategy: A strategic document outlining the climate finance pathways.

5. Presentation Materials: PowerPoint presentations or other visual formats for stakeholder engagement.

6. Policy Briefs (optional): Summarized documents outlining key findings for policy-makers.

   8. Expertise Required

The consultancy firm should possess the following qualifications and experience:

• Relevant Firm Expertise: Expertise in climate risk assessment, climate change adaptation/mitigation, and climate finance mechanisms.
• Experience: Proven track record of similar assignments in the past 5 years, particularly in climate risk assessments, climate finance mobilization, and policy development.
• Knowledge of Climate Finance: Familiarity with international climate financing mechanisms such as the Green Climate Fund, Adaptation Fund, and others.
• Sector Knowledge: Experience in the agricultural sector
• Team Composition: A multidisciplinary team with expertise in climate science, environmental/agricultural economics, public policy, and climate finance.

9. Timeline

The assessment is projected to take 60 working days (15 days per month) in a span of4 months, with key milestones as follows:

• Months 1: Inception phase, including stakeholder consultations and data collection.
• Months 2: Data collection, analysis and climate modeling.
• Months 3: Risk assessment and development of adaptation strategies.

Months 4: Report writing and stakeholder presentation of findings (management, Board of Trustees and County Representatives).