BASELINE ASSESSMENT OF BUILDING RESILIENCE AND ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE (BREAC)

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BASELINE ASSESSMENT OF BUILDING RESILIENCE AND ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE (BREAC)

ISLAMIC RELLIEF – EAST AFRICA REGIONAL OFFICE

Funding agency: Islamic Relief (IR) USA

Implementing agency: IR Somalia, IR Kenya, IR Sudan, IR Ethiopia & IR South Sudan

Project title: Building Resilience and Adaptation to Climate Change (BREAC)

Geographical area of intervention: Somalia, Kenya, Sudan, South Sudan, Ethiopia & Somalia

Project Start Date: December 1, 2023 Completion date: March 30, 2027

Project goal (expected impact): to reduce vulnerability to climate shocks among smallholder farmers, pastoralists, unemployed youth, and Internally Displaced Persons in the East Africa Region.

Background – Climate Change Adaptation

COP28 took place against a backdrop of worsening global indicators of climate change impacts, which are well corroborated by all analyses, including the Global Stock take Report, the Adaptation Gap report, and the IPCC AR6 report. The reports have one thing in common – that climate change has had an increasingly negative impact on economic and social progress in Africa. With a projection that 90% of the world’s poor will be living in Africa by 2030, achieving SDG 1 (eradication of poverty) will be a daunting task if urgent action is not taken to address the issue.

The HOA countries are characterized by rapidly growing and urbanizing populations. The region is characterized by rapid urbanization at 4.0–6.2 percent annually for much of the region, higher than sub-Saharan Africa as a whole, which is one of the world’s most rapidly urbanizing areas (USAID, 2022). The governments strain to deliver adequate social services and infrastructure to citizens, and those challenges, as well as the need to stimulate job creation, will only increase as these populations grow. In the wake of the challenges, it is inevitable that a response to Climate change is necessary more so in vulnerable communities where adaptation interventions can contribute to agricultural production, disaster prevention and preparedness. The current national budgets in HOA region cannot provide for climate response given other competing priorities.

The impact of climate change is more evident in the recurrent droughts affecting livelihoods and lives. In between late 2020-2022, four consecutive rain seasons have failed, a climatic event unseen in at least 40 years. (Somalia, Ethiopia, Kenya most affected) putting some 36 million under acute food shortage with 23.5 million needing urgent humanitarian assistance. The drought displaced more than 3 million and killed 9 million heads of livestock. Islamic Relief responded to the crises through multisectoral interventions including unconditional cash and voucher assistance, WASH, Health and Nutrition, and livestock asset protection. We reached 1.76 million (CVA and food assistance 547,213, 12WASH 733,507, Health and Nutrition 121,122, Livestock asset protection 373,121). With this BRACC project, IRW will continue supporting recovery of the rural livelihood devastated by the drought.

Project Background

The Horn of Africa stands as one of the most food-insecure regions globally, grappling with challenges spanning conflict, drought, and climate shifts that ravage both livelihoods and coping mechanisms. Five countries – Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, Sudan, and South Sudan – comprising a total population of 236 million, face severe food shortages, especially among the nearly 70% residing in vulnerable rural areas.

From the 1980s to 2000, famine threatened these nations at least once each decade, and since 2011, the specter of climate change, burgeoning populations, and dwindling per capita agricultural capacity has heightened food insecurity.

The programme aims to empower households and community groups toward sustainable livelihoods, fostering dignified living standards via an integrated approach. This involves bolstering climate-smart irrigated agriculture, ensuring gender-sensitive access to sustainable water resources, and expanding opportunities for food production, marketing, and income generation to uplift household well-being. By promoting savings and credit initiatives, fostering local micro-enterprises, and enhancing communities’ disaster management and climate adaptation capabilities, the project seeks to diversify livelihood sources and improve resilience.

Recognizing the similarities in livelihood strategies and challenges across targeted areas, the initiative will utilize a system-based approach to safeguard and enhance livelihood options for these populations. Climate change exacerbates vulnerability, displacements, and food insecurity, leading to an influx of people migrating to already overcrowded urban areas, triggering humanitarian crises and irreversible damage to livelihood systems.

The programme will also implement an integrated approach to tackle these challenges by ensuring water availability for human, livestock, and crop needs, enhancing technical know-how in climate-resilient agriculture, boosting entrepreneurship among unemployed youth and women, drawing from past local and global experiences, and cushioning target households from shocks.

Through these interventions, the project ultimately aims to enhance the adaptive capacity of target communities, fostering food security and resilience against future climate shocks. The below table describes the programme’s logic.

Expected Project Results

Outcomes 1: Increased access to potable and sufficient water for human and livestock consumption and for small-scale irrigation

Output 1 1: An estimated 130,000 people have access to climate-friendly community operated water facilities constructed (10 new Boreholes, 10 haffir/sand dams, and 10 rehabilitated Boreholes)

Output 1.2: Improved access to gender-sensitive hygiene and sanitation services for 100,000 people

Output 1.3: improved access to small-scale irrigation infrastructure

Outcome 2: improved agricultural and livestock productivity through improved access to support extension services and Climate smart agricultural practices, for optimal food production

Output 2.1 – Increased production of food and cash crops from 100 hectares of farmland (10 locations @10 hectares each… riverine farmers in Somalia, Ethiopia, Kenya (Tana river), Sudan (Blue Nile)

Output 2.2- Improved livestock health services for over 700,000 heads of livestock.

Output 2.3- Target pastoralist and agropastoral households have access to increased availability of fodder for the productive herd of livestock.

Outcome 3: Increased income and asset growth for the unemployed urban, peri-urban and IDP youth

Output 3.1 1,100 women and men entrepreneurs have improved skills to earn decent incomes for themselves and their families.

Ouput.3.2 Enhanced capacity of 5 Technical, Vocational, Education and Training (TVETs) to provide quality market-relevant skills to the youth.

Output 3.3: Improved access to microfinance/seed money for vocational training graduates

Outcome 4 – Strengthened community disaster risk reduction capacity (CMDRRs linked with Crises Modifier for response)

Output 4.1 : Target communities have disaster preparedness plans and activate for early actions to protect assets

Output 4.2: Enhanced protective measures for development gains through early intervention before the situation evolve into an emergency

Output 4.3: Localized Early Warning System Assessed and Upgraded to Improve Community-Managed EWS.

Outcome 5 – Improved IR institutional capacity on climate resilience programming through action-research

Output 5.1: Improved adaptive management through systematic and citizen led participatory monitoring, evaluation, accountability, and learning

Output 5.2: Development of knowledge and learning products on climate resilience and community based adaptation programming.

The Baseline Assessment Purpose and Objectives

The baseline evaluation should establish the current status, challenges, and opportunities within the target regions of the Horn of Africa project. This assessment should also provide a comprehensive understanding of the socio-economic, environmental, and institutional context against which the project interventions will be implemented.

Specifically, the baseline assessment has the following objectives:

1. To assess the current socio-economic conditions, livelihood patterns and food security status within the project’s targeted communities
2. To identify existing vulnerabilities, including climate-related challenges, conflicts, and other key drivers impacting livelihood systems and food security.
3. To evaluate the capacities, resources, and constraints of households, community groups, and relevant stakeholders in addressing food insecurity and livelihood sustainability.
4. To guide realistic and feasible target readjustment for performance indicators where needed and to inform the planning and implementation process including MEAL systems;
5. Understanding of the operational environment and existing priorities in the target countries in the areas of intervention [used to update risk matrix].
6. Provide top -line / broad understanding on existing strategic natural resources (pasture and water) across the five countries for the target communities.
7. Examine socio cultural beliefs and practices that have a high influence in gendered livelihoods activities and resilience opportunities.
8. Identify potential learning areas (and top-line learning approaches) where IR EARO can systematically collect and review data on a regular basis for continuous learning and improvement both for the project and in future programming of a similar nature.

Scope and Methodology

An appropriate mix of qualitative and quantitative methods will be used to gather and analyse data/information, in order to give a diverse perspective to the baseline, and to promote participation of different groups of stakeholders. The selected consultant should propose appropriate data collection methods, including sampling strategy, and survey tools for each type of stakeholder that follow established ethical guidelines. The baseline study must ensure that the data collected is disaggregated by geography as per the country specific governance structure, sex (male, female, other), age (children & youth, elderly), and people with disabilities (PWD). If applicable the data should also highlight if the respondent is an IDP, Refugee, or a member of the host community. This project will reach approximately 200,000 directly and 10,000 indirectly.

The data collected should be supported by the written documentation. Consultants are encouraged to suggest creative approaches beyond those mentioned in the TOR. However, the baseline assessment should encompass the following:

• Reviewing existing literature, reports, and data relevant to food security, livelihoods, climate patterns, and socio-economic conditions in the target regions.
• Conducting surveys in selected communities to gather primary data on household demographics, income sources, food access, agricultural practices, water availability, and coping mechanisms during crises.
• Engaging with key stakeholders, including community leaders, government officials, NGOs, and other relevant entities, to gather insights into local dynamics, challenges, and opportunities.
• Analyzing the collected data to develop a comprehensive baseline report outlining the current situation and trends related to food security and livelihoods in the project areas.

The key questions that must be answered by the baseline report. The list is not exhaustive. The Consultant is required to develop relevant questions that capture baseline data for each of the above stated project logic

1. Socio-Economic Context:
2. What are the demographic profiles of the targeted communities, including household sizes, age distribution, and gender composition?
3. What are the main sources of income for households within these communities, and how stable or diversified are these income sources?
4. What are the prevalent livelihood activities (agriculture, pastoralism, trade, etc.) and how do they contribute to household food security and income generation?
5. Food Security and Nutrition:
   1. What is the current status of food security in the targeted regions, including access, availability, utilization, and stability of food sources?
   2. What are the dietary patterns and nutritional status among different demographic groups, particularly vulnerable populations like children, women, and the elderly?
   3. How do seasonal variations and climate-related factors impact food availability and access for households?
6. Climate and Environmental Context:
7. What are the prevalent climate-related challenges faced by communities in the targeted areas, such as droughts, erratic rainfall, or other environmental factors affecting agricultural productivity and water availability?
8. How do these climate challenges impact livelihoods, particularly among pastoralists and farmers, and what coping mechanisms are employed during periods of crisis?
9. Access to Resources and Services:
10. What is the accessibility and availability of water resources for household and agricultural purposes within the communities?
11. How accessible are markets, financial services, and extension services to support agricultural practices and livelihood diversification?
12. What are the existing infrastructural limitations (roads, storage facilities, etc.) that hinder access to resources and markets?
13. Vulnerability and Coping Mechanisms:
14. What are the main drivers of vulnerability within these communities, including conflicts, displacement, and socio-economic disparities?
15. What are the primary coping mechanisms adopted by households during food shortages, climatic crises, or economic shocks?
16. Community Capacities and Perceptions:
17. What are the existing capacities, skills, and knowledge within the communities regarding climate-smart agriculture, disaster management, and adaptive strategies?
18. How do community members perceive and prioritize their needs and challenges related to livelihoods and food security?
19. Gender Dynamics and Social Structures:
20. What are the gender-specific roles and contributions to livelihood activities and decision-making processes within households and communities?
21. How do social structures and cultural norms impact access to resources, opportunities, and participation in livelihood-related activities among different genders?

Management of the Consultancy

The consultant will be responsible for conducting the activities and delivering the outputs set out in this terms of reference and will coordinate all activities with and through the IRW EARO Regional MEAL Officer. The IRW EARO Regional MEAL Officer is responsible for facilitating access to all relevant and available documents (proposals, donor reports and evaluation reports etc) and wider staff necessary for the consultant to conduct these activities and deliver the outputs. The IRW EARO Regional MEAL officer will also coordinate consultant engagement with country offices particularly to support the oversight of data collection, and ensure to ensure seamless consultancy procedures and fulfillment of contractual responsibilities.

The consultant will report to the IRW EARO Regional MEAL Officer, who will be supported by the Global Accountability & Learning lead based in UK and the in-country MEAL coordinators.

Deliverables

Deliverables for this project would be:

1. Written inception report and schedule agreed with IRW within one week of commence
2. Baseline assessment report: A detailed report outlining the findings, analysis, and key recommendations derived from the evaluation.
3. Executive summary incorporated in the above, not exceeding 3 pages.
4. Data sets: Raw data collected during surveys and assessments in a format accessible for further analysis anonymized.
5. FGD score sheets/ reports/recordings and key informant interview forms/ reports.
6. Related codebooks, and data analysis files (SPSS syntax files,)
7. All field notes which should guarantee anonymity for the interviewees
8. Presentation slides of findings to IR East Africa regional team, East Africa country teams and IRW representatives.

Key Responsibilities of the consultant

The consultant is expected to produce:

1. A detailed work plan and inception report developed with and approved by IRW, setting out the detailed methodology, relevant technical standards to be used as reference for the evaluation, sampling strategy and deliverables prior to commencing the desk review.
2. Develop quantitative and qualitative data gathering tools in consultation with IRW EARO Regional MEAL Officer
3. Conduct training for the data collection teams including pre‐testing of data collection tools
4. Plan and coordinate quantitative and qualitative data collection
5. The work plan, inception report, draft report, final report, presentation, etc., and communication language must be in English.
6. A full report with the following sections:
   • Title of Report: Baseline Assessment of Building Resilience and Adaptation To Climate Change (BREAC)
   • Consultancy organisation and any partner names.
   • Name of person who compiled the report including summary of role/contribution of others in the team.
   • Period during which the review was undertaken.
   • Acknowledgements.
   • Abbreviations.
   • Table of contents.
   • Executive summary.
   • Main report – max 32 pages
     • A description of the project, including the results framework and theory of change – 1 page
     • Purpose and Objectives of the baseline study – 1 page
     • Key study questions or objectives and a statement of the scope of the study, with information on limitations and delimitations – 5 pages
     • An overview of the study approach, methodology and data sources – 3 pages
     • baseline findings – 20 pages
     • Conclusion based on baseline findings – 3 pages
     • Recommendations based on baseline findings – 2 pages
   • Annexes
     • Terms of reference for the baseline.
     • Profile of the review team members.
     • Baseline schedule.
     • Documents consulted during the desk review.
     • Persons participating in the baseline – with appropriate consent for names to be published or specific names should be anonymised highlighting just role, organisation and gender.
     • Quality media images demonstrating IR EARO work in the region.
     • Additional key overview tables, graphs or charts etc. created and used to support analysis inform findings.
     • Bibliography.
7. Anonymised copies of all data collected in Excel or appropriate format which would enable cross-checking and any additional analysis.
8. A presentation of draft findings and recommendations will be made by the consultant
   • Capability statement: How the consultant or firm is structured for the assignment and CVs of the key personnel who will take part in the consultancy.

Schedule, Timelines and Logistics

The consultant should describe the evaluation’s overall schedule that should end in February 2024 (i.e., duration, phasing, timing) as well as work hours, required preparation work, conditions that might affect data collection, meeting-arranging procedures, and needed and available office space (e.g., interviewers).

Logistics

Include your logistics and other disbursements costs in the financial proposal as IRW EARO shall not cater for the consultant’s logistics and incidentals costs. IR Country offices led by the MEAL coordinators shall carter for the logistics costs [hiring of enumerator, venue for training of enumerators and vehicle hire]. The consultancy term of payment will be 40% upon approval of the inception report and the remaining upon submission and approval of final baseline report.

Products rights and ownership

The ownership of the evaluation reports and associated products will belong to IRW, and any documents or publications related to this evaluation will not be shared externally except with the consent of the IRW EARO Regional Director.

Applications Requirements

• Technical Proposal: The consultant’s understanding and interpretation of the Terms of Reference (TOR), a detailed methodology on how the data collection and analysis will be done and detailed implementation schedule for the study as well as any other proposed approaches the consultant may deem fit for this endline assessment.
• Financial proposal: Itemized budget proposal that should include the consultancy fees and operational/logistic costs.
• References: Names, addresses, telephone numbers of three organizations that you have conducted baseline/evaluations for within the last three years, that will serve as your professional referees.
• List of Evaluation reports: Final reports for the assessments/evaluations conducted for the three reference organizations provided.

Desired Qualifications and abilities

• A minimum master’s degree in social sciences or relevant field; Statistics, M&E
• At least 10 years’ experience undertaking assessment for Climate Change projects, Food security, livelihoods and Cash transfers programs.
• Expertise in food security, livelihoods, climate change and resilience programming
• Must have led at least two to three similar/assignments in the past 4 years
• Strong analytical skills with proven experience in collecting and analysing qualitative, quantitative methodologies.
• Extensive experience in undertaking baselines/evaluations in the Horn of Africa
• Excellent conflict sensitive approaches and able to work in highly sensitive environments