Individual Consultant to conduct budget analysis and develop a budget brief for the social protection sector (Open to Nationals and Internationals)

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ADVERT – Individual Consultant to conduct budget analysis and develop a budget brief for the social protection sector (Open to Nationals and Internationals)

Background

Maldives is an upper-middle-income small island developing state. It is among the most geographically dispersed countries in the world yet has one of the most densely populated capitals.  Its population of 557,000 lives across 187 islands, with 40 per cent living in the capital, Male’. Children represent 34 per cent of the total population.

Over the past four decades Maldives has witnessed extensive economic development and social transformation. Life expectancy increased by 30 years. Annual real gross domestic product (GDP) growth averaged 5.7 per cent between 2000 and 2019. Universal primary education was achieved by 2000 and child and maternal mortality decreased from 48 to 9 per 1,000 live births and from 200 to 44 per 100,000 live births, respectively. Maldives was the only country that achieved five out of eight Millennium Development Goals in South Asia. The Government has significantly improved child protection and child rights mechanisms, ratifying the 2019 Juvenile Justice Act and 2019 Child Rights Protection Act and appointing a Child Rights Ombudsperson in 2020.

Many of the country’s remote islands have not benefited from an equal share of its socioeconomic development and considerable disparities persist. While one in three children are multidimensionally poor, 87 per cent of the poor children live in the atolls. Male’ presents urban challenges, including inadequate and crowded living spaces. Increasing numbers of children and adolescents migrate without their parents from the outer islands to Male’, often for education and training.

Ministry of Finance (MoFT) proposed a budget of MVR 49.5 billion for the year 2024 to the Parliament of the Maldives. Of the proposed budget MVR 47.4 billion is total expenditure and the government is expected to receive MVR 33.5 billion as Revenue and grants in 2024.  The Budget Deficit for 2024 is 13.8 billion, amounting to 12.0 percent of GDP. The primary aim of Budget 2024 is to address the increasing fiscal challenges and secure the sustainability of fiscal and debt aspects. To achieve this, the government’s approach includes enlarging the tax base to enhance revenue and revamping the social security assistance system to give priority to those who require government aid the most, ultimately aiming to improve efficiency.

However, due to the geographical vastness of the country, the budgeting process in Maldives is relatively complex, involving 19 Ministries at national level, 20 Atoll councils and 187 island councils throughout the country, as well as the People’s Majlis (Parliament). The state as experienced centralizing all decision-making to the national government, the promised to re-institutionalize decentralization, bringing along with it a new set of challenges to the future budgeting process, considering limited capacities and unclear definition of what decentralization means. Linking the planning and budgeting processes in a meaningful way and strengthening the ability of the Parliament to play its oversight role in reviewing the draft budget is a gap UNICEF wishes to address as part of the overall efforts to strengthen Public Finance for Children mechanisms.

This assignment requires the service of an international or national consultant with specialized skills and knowledge in public financial management and developing budget briefs based on regional and international best practices. Given the nature of the task, an international or national consultant is also required to coordinate with government agencies and gather data and information to carry a budget analysis and develop a budget brief for the Social Protection Sector. 

Objectives

The objective of conducting budget analysis and developing budget briefs is to contribute to the realization of children’s rights by supporting the best possible use of public budgets. The specific objective is to synthesize complex budget information so that it is easily understood by stakeholders and to put forth practical recommendations that can inform and make financial decision-making processes better respond to the needs and rights of children, as outlined in relevant national policy frameworks. The budget analysis and briefs are also expected to enhance the efficiency, effectiveness, equity, and adequacy of social sector expenditures for children’s rights and development. It will also increase the knowledge of the relevant government agencies and UNICEF staff on budget issues that are linked to sector results.

To achieve the task, UNICEF Maldives would like to recruit an international or national consultant to conduct budget analysis, in terms of general trends and the impact on fiscal space.

Scope of work and methodology

Budget analysis and briefs will require budget data from national and international sources (for comparisons) as well as information on the performance of the Social Protection Sector, including at the sub-national level. Based on country context and data availability, the structure and content of the briefs might vary. However, the following scope and structure is proposed in line with the overall objective stated above and in accordance with UNICEF guidelines and existing country office examples:

1. Sector Definition and Overview: Government’s definition of the social protection sector (sector bodies and budgets), and overview of key policy and/or strategy documents (targets) and recent sector performance and contribution to SDGs. Focus on institutions that have public budget allocations in line with official functional classification of the budget law.
2. Sector Spending Trends (overall): Size and priority of the sector, spending changes, spending against commitments, spending compared to other countries. This analysis should consider changes in nominal terms, real terms, as a percentage of total government spending and Gross Domestic Product.
3. Composition of Sector Spending: including by ministries and institutions/Atoll, by programmes and by the type of spending (recurrent and capital).
4. Budget Credibility and Execution: the relationship between budget allocations and actual expenditures and the capacity of the social protection sector to spend available funds.
5. Equity of public spending and Contribution to SDGs: is spending prioritizing the most disadvantaged persons/children and achieving results for all persons/children? (Disparities based on regions/decentralization, disparities based on poverty level with focus on vulnerable groups, gender dimensions, and persons with disabilities). Where relevant, consideration should be given to the relationship between regional/atoll sectoral outcomes and per-capita spending.
6. Financing issues:

1. 1. Source of Spending: e.g., by government, donors, internally generated funds, and how this has changed over time, and what the implications are for sustainability of sector funding. Where relevant, this should include an analysis of private household (i.e., out-of-pocket) expenditures, harnessing available research and evidence.
   2. Wider financing issues: Consideration should be given to fiscal space more broadly, and whether there is scope to: (a) increase fiscal space, perhaps through increase government revenues at the aggregate or sectoral level and drawing comparisons to comparator countries; (b) increase aid or household financing contributions, or indeed whether the government should be seeking to replace donor funding for greater accountability and sustainability of funding; (c) any additional innovative financing options as relevant.
2. Key advocacy messages and recommendations: The budget brief will provide key recommendations, which should be specific, achievable, and time-bound (or at the very least, indicative of short-, medium- and/or long-term goals). In consultation with the UNICEF team, the consultant will finally produce a short summary of key advocacy messages (2-3 pages) and will facilitate an impact action plan workshop[1] with the UNICEF team, producing an impact action plan for the team to take forward.

Deliverables

Work Plan and Inception report (by last week of January 2024): The inception report need to cover the following: (a) Provide brief overview of Maldives public finance situation and recent updates related to the budgeting environment and the overall macroeconomic situation in relation to the global and national changes; (b) provide understanding of the task, proposed methodology and proposed outline of budget briefs, including proposed data collection of externally available data, and identification / specification of any further data that may be requested from government stakeholders to supplement analysis; (c) reflect on experiences and best practices from other countries. This phase can be supported by meetings with UNICEF’s internal section stakeholders, and with government stakeholders, as needed. The UNICEF contract supervisor will support with coordination of these meetings.

Development of draft analysis and budget briefs for the social protection sector (by the end of February 2024): Based on review of public finance data and consultations with UNICEF stakeholders and government agencies, including the Atolls, in line with objective and scope above. The UNICEF contract supervisor and Social Policy team will continually support by coordinating meetings with relevant internal and external stakeholders.

Final Budget analysis and brief (by February 2024): Submission of final version of the case based on technical feedback from UNICEF and the Ministry of Finance/National Social Protection Agency and the validation meetings. Validation meetings to involve different government ministries and Atolls to discuss and verify findings.

Presentation of analysis and briefs and advocacy (by March 2024): Delivering presentation of the case with key messages and recommendations. This is to include an advocacy meeting with Ministry of Finance and other relevant ministries, and other stakeholders. Briefs to be jointly developed and published with the Ministry of Finance, Ministry of Social and Family Development and National Social Protection Agency.

Final report (by the end of March 2024): Submitted compiling all tools, data, analysis, and deliverables. Final report to include a short Budget Brief Impact Statement that describes in detail how the information will be transformed into action and influence.

The assignment to be carried out between January 2024 and March 2024 for three months. Tentative schedule is as follows, payment schedule is provided below which is according to the deliverables below, upon receiving the following deliverables, the payments in following the below schedule will be made:

Deliverable	Due by	Cost breakdown (%)
Final Work Plan & Inception report	30 January	15%
Draft outline of Budget analysis and Brief	15 February	20%
Draft budget analysis and brief	15 March
Final Budget analysis and Brief	20 March	20%
Presentation of Brief and Advocacy	27 March	25%
Submission of Final Report on budget analysis and brief	31 March	20%

Travel: The contract will have two trips, one to finalize and present the inception report and one for validation and presentation of findings to UNICEF team and Government Authorities.

Quality Assurance:

UNICEF will only make payments based on approval of specific deliverables as listed in this TOR. A technical review committee will be established to oversee, quality assure and sign off the deliverables.

Duty station: Male’, Maldives

Duration of the contract: 3 Months

Supervisor/reporting line: This contract will be supervised by the Social Policy Specialist along with strategic guidance from the Country Office Deputy Representative, and the public finance consultant in the Regional Office for South Asia.

Section/Programme: Social Policy Section

Qualifications or specialized knowledge and/or experience required:

This contract will be awarded to an individual not sponsored by an institution. International or national Consultant must have a minimum of eight years of experience working on social sector finance and budget analysis.   

The key qualifications include:

• At least eight years of professional experience in budget analysis and briefs, review exercises, with evidence of understanding global standards, theories, models, and methods related to analysis and research.
• Proven experience in designing, leading, and conducting budget analysis that involves an analysis on capacity building/programme/project.
• Advocacy and social engagement skills necessary for dealing with technical experts, implementing government partners, and NGO and political leaders that will be consulted.
• Excellent written and oral communication skills in English required.

[1] For UNICEF guidance on impact action plan workshops, please visit https://www.unicef.org/esa/sites/unicef.org.esa/files/2019-04/Budget-Brief-Impact-Action-Plan-Guide.pdf

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UNICEF has a zero-tolerance policy on conduct that is incompatible with the aims and objectives of the United Nations and UNICEF, including sexual exploitation and abuse, sexual harassment, abuse of authority and discrimination. UNICEF also adheres to strict child safeguarding principles. All selected candidates will be expected to adhere to these standards and principles and will therefore undergo rigorous reference and background checks. Background checks will include the verification of academic credential(s) and employment history. Selected candidates may be required to provide additional information to conduct a background check. 

Remarks:  

Only shortlisted candidates will be contacted and advance to the next stage of the selection process. 

Individuals engaged under a consultancy or individual contract will not be considered “staff members” under the Staff Regulations and Rules of the United Nations and UNICEF’s policies and procedures, and will not be entitled to benefits provided therein (such as leave entitlements and medical insurance coverage). Their conditions of service will be governed by their contract and the General Conditions of Contracts for the Services of Consultants and Individual Contractors. Consultants and individual contractors are responsible for determining their tax liabilities and for the payment of any taxes and/or duties, in accordance with local or other applicable laws. 

The selected candidate is solely responsible to ensure that the visa (applicable) and health insurance required to perform the duties of the contract are valid for the entire period of the contract. Selected candidates are subject to confirmation of fully-vaccinated status against SARS-CoV-2 (Covid-19) with a World Health Organization (WHO)-endorsed vaccine, which must be met prior to taking up the assignment. It does not apply to consultants who will work remotely and are not expected to work on or visit UNICEF premises, programme delivery locations or directly interact with communities UNICEF works with, nor to travel to perform functions for UNICEF for the duration of their consultancy contracts.