Background

Uganda Vision 2040 spelt out the country’s demographic profile, characterized by high fertility at 5.2 per woman coupled with high though declining mortality and the consequent child dependency age structure. This is a major hindrance to realizing the country’s aspirations of becoming an upper mid-income country as reflected in the Vision targets. However, the Vision also states that with the right kind of investments, the country’s erstwhile and youthful population can be turned into an opportunity. In this connection, the Vision pronounced investing in the country’s abundant human resource to create human capital and thereby harness the Demographic Dividend (DD), as one of the strategies that will be adopted to enhance the country’s chances of realizing Vision 2040.

The three national development plans (NDPs) developed so far under the Comprehensive National Development Planning Framework (CNDPF) and Uganda Vision 2040 have all focused on addressing the population issues with a view to making it more amenable to development planning. The current NDP III (2020/1 – 2024/5) now has a full-fledged programme on Human Capital Development while other programmes have also streamlined population issues. The programmes represent a culmination of the envisaged Vision strategy of investing in human resources to harness the demographic dividend. Therefore, the goal for the third NDP was to increase household incomes and improved quality of life in line with the Uganda Vision 2040, EAC Vision 2050, Africa Agenda 2063 and the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).

The review of the NDPIII implementation indicated very low progress achieved, and the specific acknowledgment of the challenges and opportunities related to the inclusion of Persons with Disabilities (PWDs) in socio-economic development, aligning with the NDP III’s focus on Human Capital Development and the commitment to leaving no one behind. The National Planning Authority (NPA) therefore plans to conduct various background papers based on key topical issues that will inform policy decision to accelerate implementation of the plan and help inform the formulation of NDP IV. The NPA would therefore wish to conduct a Gap analysis on key demographic dividend indicators including health, education and employment (including assessing the implications for disability inclusion), and how the country can take advantage of the young population by investing in the various pillars that will drive the DD and highlight how the current challenges that can be addressed in NDP IV to advance the country of realizing the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and its national development goals and aspirations.

Secondly, based on the Gap Analysis, the NPA would like to prepare position papers on key areas including health and education as key pillars for harnessing the demographic dividend; and a position paper on Disability Inclusion, to highlight the importance of inclusive policies and programs that address the unique barriers faced by PWDs in accessing health, education, and employment. The position papers will be submitted in support of the on-going engagement and discussions on the policy options of the National Review processes such as the Education Review.

A comprehensive gap analysis that will be both substantive/qualitative and financial vis-a-vis the extent of the integrating and harnessing of the demographic dividend based on relevant SDGs and national indicators, and how this framework is contributing to the achievement of the country’s aspirations considering also financial gaps to reach key goals including the three transformative results is required to inform the NDP IV process.

The International Consultant will be the lead to:

1. To carry out the gap analysis on population-related and relevant SDGs indicators and required investments building on available data including the recent 2022 Uganda Demographic and Health Survey (UDHS) results. Furthermore, gaps between the optimized allocation and integration of the inputs (resources), and the current allocation-level will be identified to reveal areas which need improvement.
2. Costing (modelling) of the three transformative results that the Government of Uganda has committed to during the Nairobi Summit in 2019 to ensure they are also incorporated in NDP IV, namely; zero preventable maternal death; zero gender-based violence; and zero unmet need for family planning will be conducted, making a case for investing in these three transformative results.

In this regard, the consultancy aims to systematically analyze existing policies relevant to the three transformative goals to identify the gaps and come up with policy implications. The gap analysis will involve comparison of actual performance with potential or desired performance of the implemented programmes both qualitatively and financially.

Specific objectives

1. Review existing legal and policy instruments as well relevant population- and SDGs indicators to identify gaps in policy implementation of population issues including disability, with emphasis on the demographic dividend.
2. Assess the extent to which the national frameworks (plans and budgets) have addressed the population issues and impact on service delivery amidst the high child dependency burden.
3. Costing of the three transformative results looking also at the costs of inaction and making a case for investing in the transformative results.
4. Based on the review, contribute to the preparation of detailed recommendations of the policies, and strategies that are required for sexual and reproductive health rights, including effective strategies for policy advocacy.
5. Develop the following:

i. Position paper on key areas related to the population dynamics to drive harnessing of the demographic dividend for Uganda;

ii. Position paper on Disability Inclusion, highlighting the importance of key policy accelerators and inclusive policies and programs that address the unique barriers and underlying factors faced by people with disability;

iii. A synthesis report on the three transformative results.

6. Make actionable, realistic, results-oriented, and concrete recommendations on policy changes and accelerators as well as financial commitments required to inform NDP IV.

Duration and working schedule

The assignment will be accomplished within 45 days from time of signing the contracts. The Lead Consultant will be teamed up with a National Consultant. The consultants will work as a team to complete the assignment, in any case not later than 31^st May 2024.

Please click on the link for the full consultancy description and requirements.