Request for Proposals: Climate impacts on migration: Inhospitable climates and conflict, adaptive migration, and supporting those left behind – REQUE0

Request for Proposals

United States Institute of Peace

Addressing climate impacts on migration: The link between inhospitable climates

and conflict; supporting adaptive migration and those left behind

Remote

Release Date: August 1, 2024

RFP Due Date: 5:00 pm Eastern Standard Time
August 20, 2024

Refer Questions to:

Submit Proposals to:

Katherine Waters, kwaters@usip.org

Katherine Waters, kwaters@usip.org

Do not use the Apply button on this page.

Pertinent responses will be made available to all offerors by e-mail. No inquiries will be accepted after specified time and date.

The response must be submitted by time and date listed above to be considered.

“Please contact Katherine Waters at Kwaters@usip.org for a copy of the General instructions and terms as well as the terms and conditions.”

Introduction and Background

The United States Institute of Peace (USIP) is a national, nonpartisan, independent institute, founded by Congress and dedicated to the proposition that a world without violent conflict is possible, practical, and essential for the United States and global security. In conflict zones abroad, the Institute works with local partners to prevent, mitigate, and resolve violent conflict. For more information, please visit http://www.usip.org.

USIP’s Program on Climate, Environment, and Conflict (CEC) was launched in the beginning of FY2022. Its focus has been on four key policy-relevant themes: understanding and mitigating the risks of conflict in a transition to a sustainable global economy; addressing the impacts of migration and displacement linked to climate and environmental change; managing conflict around transboundary water resources in a changing climate; and deepening an understanding of climate security issues and their strategic implications.

Humans have for millennia occupied a very narrow niche of Earth’s ecosystems. With a rapidly changing climate, however, the human temperature niche is projected to shift dramatically, exposing up to 3 billion people over the next fifty years to extreme heat and increasing vulnerability. Increased exposure to climate risks strongly correlates with fragility, heightening potential vulnerability to humanitarian emergencies or instability. Migration, already an integral component in responding to ever worsening environmental shocks, will only continue to increase as climate change creates inhospitable zones. Multilateral agencies point to slow-onset climate change pushing up to 200 million internal migrants worldwide by 2050. Meanwhile, sudden-onset disasters displaced nearly 26 million people internally in 2023—in contrast to the estimated 21 million displaced by conflict — threatening long-term stability and worsening displacement. Climate-vulnerable regions are
already seeing an influx of migrants into urban centers as people flee climate disasters and seek improved economic, food, and water security. In the coming decades, these compounding risks will be among the most significant challenges developing countries will face, setting the stage for unprecedented international support and cooperation needs and transforming the shape of conflict at both the local and geopolitical level.

Such trends augur increasing risks of instability and violence as the number of displaced people rises, and they seek refuge, either temporarily or permanently, in urban areas already facing a variety of social, economic, political, and environmental challenges. While migration can serve as an effective adaptation measure to alleviate insecurity and increase local resilience, it can also be a form of maladaptation, increasing vulnerability in underdeveloped urban centers and exacerbating resource scarcity in host communities. These trends thus demand a more thoughtful global policy approach both to the immediate humanitarian issue of disaster-related displacement and to the long-term implications of slow-onset climate change that may cause even greater displacement in the future.

Purpose of the RFP

USIP seeks an organization or individual (including academic institutions and/or non-profits which engage on applied research and/or policy work), to develop one or more policy papers or a small research project to help guide USIP’s thinking and policy development in the area of migration and displacement related to climate and environmental change. Specifically, these publications will help USIP understand key issues that are likely to influence the shape of migration and displacement around climate and environmental change, as well as policy approaches that can be currently implemented to prepare.

Those interested in submitting a proposal should have demonstrated experience in applied research and/or policy related to climate, migration/displacement, peace, and conflict studies. Applicants at all levels, from early career to the more established, are encouraged to submit proposals.

This opportunity is for a work for hire contract.

Scope of Work

Background

USIP may award up to three contracts either for the development of policy papers or for a small research project, with the goal of publishing the work either as USIP Peaceworks or Special Reports publications. The timeline of the project will be dependent on scope and research demands. Peaceworks publications target peacebuilding practitioners or academics (although not necessarily both at the same time), and range from 8,000 to 20,000 words, including endnotes. Peaceworks publications emphasize in-depth background, research, and analysis, and include detailed policy recommendations and conclusions. Special Reports are short, timely, policy-relevant reports that range from 2,500-10,000 words. Special Reports offer policymakers, practitioners, and scholars a distillation of expert research, lessons learned and problem solving in the topic field. The publications should offer recommendations to USIP, with a focus on the changing nature of conflict, to help guide its practical
engagement on water management and on related policy issues.

We invite offerors to submit proposals that address one of the issues outlined below. Please note that there are several separate lines of inquiry. We expect proposals to substantially respond to and address one line of inquiry. If there is interest in addressing multiple lines of inquiry, please submit individual proposals for each.

Proposals can be based on ongoing work that is ready to be turned into a policy piece or novel research that requires more extensive work. USIP would also welcome follow-on components to an ongoing project that addresses one of the below issues. Any potential follow-on components should be identified in the Technical Narrative Proposal.

Line of Inquiry 1: How changes in geographies hospitable to human life will shape future conflict

The year 2024 has recorded some of the hottest days globally on record, including temperatures in the Middle East that have reached a heat index of nearly 150^oF. Xu et al. (2020) estimate that, in the absence of migration, within 50 years, between 1-3 billion people are likely to be living in geographies that are outside of what has been considered habitable conditions for humans. This implies an incredibly rapid shift in human societies required to accommodate such environmental changes, with the potential for conflict from local to geopolitical levels.

Questions may include:
* How is growing ecological inhospitability likely to shape future conflict? What are the key factors (e.g., climate-related, context characteristics around fragility or social and economic development, etc.) that are likely to play a critical role in shaping how increasing inhospitability drives conflict?
* Are there any comparable (or historical) case studies that can help understand how societies may respond, and how conflict may evolve at local to geopolitical scales?
* What are the most critical policy options to explore now to prepare for the impact of increasing inhospitability?

Line of Inquiry 2: Supporting adaptive migration in urban areas

Climate change is further exacerbating migration – both cyclical and permanent – to urban areas in many areas of the world. Migration can be a form of adaptation, diversifying household income, alleviating competition over climate-impacted resources, and increasing local resilience. However, when adaptation measures and strong governance are not in place, this population movement can lead to anti-state sentiment, growing tensions, and urban crime as resources are stressed, economic opportunities are limited, and infrastructure to provide housing, water, food, and other services is tenuous.

Questions may include:
* What is the emerging consensus around best practices for actions that cities can undertake to effectively integrate incoming migrants and mitigate potential grievances or risks of conflict?
* What initiatives must be prioritized in the short term? How can additional initiatives build on an initial base of investments? At what scale should these initiatives operate?
* What actors are critical to be engaged in building urban resilience in order to mitigate conflict risks?

Line of Inquiry 3: Supporting people who remain behind

As communities empty out, some people stay behind – whether by choice (e.g., having cultural or religious ties to the land) or because of a lack of options (e.g., not having the resources to move). For instance, as climate shocks and slow-onset climate change precipitate male migration in search of better economic opportunities, women are often left behind to take care of household and family responsibilities. In other cases, households and communities choose to remain immobile, like many across the Pacific who view land as culturally and spiritually significant.

Questions may include:
* What is the impact on community stability and the risk of conflict as communities lose population? How do access to services and business change (e.g. education and health services; businesses that provide key commodities or jobs)?
* How can evolving community dynamics create new opportunities for economic or social advancement or new risks and/or vulnerabilities?
* What lessons can be drawn from case studies about how to best support populations most affected by this tension between voluntary relocation/immobility and involuntary relocation/immobility?
* How should potential actions to support immobile populations be sequenced to take into account that climate impacts are likely to increase in severity over time?

Line of Inquiry 4: Other Opportunities

USIP will consider proposals that identify important related topics that do not appear on this list. Any proposals will have to strongly justify the topic relative to other topics contained within this RFP.

Project Goals and Objectives

The objective of this Request for Proposals is to support rigorous, novel applied research or policy development that explores how to address increased ecological in hospitability due to climate and environmental change that is likely to shape the future of conflict, as well as how to support migrants to urban areas as well as people who stay behind. The goal is to inform USIP’s growing migration and displacement portfolio and enable USIP’s in-country operations to prevent and address potential conflicts in the future.

Expected Contract Type

Firm fixed price

Scope

The project will require the researcher(s) to complete the following during the contract term:

1. Coordinate with the USIP program team to determine publication goal, plan research, field work, or other activities.

* Deliverable #1: Agree on goals; finalize work plan

1. Develop a conceptual outline that includes proposed literature review, research methodologies, and timeline for approval by USIP before conducting research.
   + Deliverable #2: Conceptual outline (3-5 pages)
2. Provide a draft manuscript that addresses one of the lines of research outlined in this RFP.
   + Deliverable #3: Draft manuscript (10,000-20,000 words)
3. Provide a second draft manuscript that responds to USIP review.
4. Deliverable #4: Second draft manuscript (10,000-20,000 words)
5. Provide a final manuscript that responds to peer review and that will be of quality to publish through USIP as a Peaceworks or Special Report; and a blog post on the final report to be published as Analysis & Commentary on USIP’s website.
   + Deliverable #5: Final manuscript (10,000-20,000 words) and blog post (800-1,200 words)

Level of Effort

Estimations for the level of effort required for each deliverable are as follows:

Deliverable #1: Coordination of publication process (1 day)

Deliverable #2: Conceptual outline (5-7 days)

Deliverable #3: Draft manuscript (15-20 days)

Deliverable #4: Revision of draft manuscript (5-10 days)

Deliverable #5: Final manuscript and blog post (5-10 days)

Tentative Timeline

A tentative timeline for the completion of deliverables is provided below. USIP will work with the selected proposer to finalize deliverables and deliverable due dates upon selection.

Number

Deliverable

Estimated Due Date

1

Researcher/author and program team will determine publication goal, plan research, field work, or other activities.

October 16, 2024

2

Researcher/author will provide program team with research plan and/or conceptual outline.

October 30, 2024

3

Researcher/author will provide program team first draft of manuscript.

February 10, 2025

4

Program team will provide researcher/author with revision guidance.

February 24, 2025

5

Researcher/author will provide program team second draft of manuscript. If this version is deemed to have publication potential, it will be sent out for peer review.

March 21, 2025

6

Program team will provide researcher/author with revision guidance.

May 2, 2025

7

Researcher/author will provide program team final draft of manuscript to be conveyed to USIP publication team. USIP publication team may need to work closely with author on edits before publication is finalized. The researcher/author will also provide a blog post related to the final manuscript to be published on USIP’s website.

June 16, 2025

Submission Requirements

Any proposal that does not contain all items listed below may be considered nonresponsive. For more detail on the selection process, including corresponding evaluation criteria, please see Section V below. To be considered under this RFP, please submit the following:

Technical Narrative Proposal

The technical narrative proposal should be no more than 5 pages and include the following sections:

Importance and Impact of Proposal

Proposals should clearly describe the importance of the issue to be addressed, research objectives, and policy significance. Proposals should also demonstrate knowledge of the research subject and literature. Further, proposals should identify which line of inquiry it plans to address. Proposals can address one or more lines of inquiry, if desired.

Prior Experience

Describe at least two projects of similar scope and complexity the offeror has worked on previously. Provide a point of contact with telephone number and email address for each of the described projects.

Overall Approach and Methodology

Based on the information provided, describe the proposed approach to desk research, data analysis, research methodology, and development of conclusions. As noted above, the final research methodology will be developed in consultation with USIP. Any potential follow-on components should be identified in this section.

Key Personnel, Staffing, and Specific Expertise

Describe the key personnel, their role, their level of knowledge, and how their experience is related and beneficial. Describe the overall staffing plan for the project. Please note that staff may be non-US citizens and do not require a security clearance.

Exceptions to Contract Terms:

Any exceptions to the attached USIP Terms & Conditions must be clearly outlined in an annex to the Technical Narrative Proposal (the annex will not count toward the technical proposal page limit). Universities should reach out to contracting@usip.org to receive a copy of USIP Terms & Conditions specifically for contracts with universities.

Curriculum Vitae (CV)

For each of the key personnel, please provide a CV of no more than three pages. CVs will not count towards technical narrative proposal page limit.

Cost Proposal

The cost proposal shall include a detailed budget and a budget narrative. Budget must be in US dollars and in a spreadsheet format (e.g., Excel). Please note that USIP allows nonprofit organizations to include up to 15% indirect cost recovery on total direct costs for contracts.

Financial Management Assessment Form

Organizations must complete the Financial Management Assessment Form unless they have received Federal grants, contracts or cooperative agreements in the past two years and can provide their audited financial statement from their most recent fiscal year. Please reach out to Katherine Waters (kwaters@usip.org) to request a copy of the Financial Management Assessment Form if it is not attached to the solicitation.

Certification Page

Complete and sign the Certification Page below and submit with the proposal.

1. Selection Process
2. Schedule

Date

Schedule

August 1, 2024

RFP issued

August 9, 2024

Questions concerning RFP and project emailed to kwaters@usip.org no later than 5:00 pm Eastern Standard Time.

August 12, 2024

Answers to questions will be made available to all offerors.

August 20, 2024

Proposals are due no later than 5:00 pm Eastern Standard Time. Late submissions may not be accepted.

August 22, 2024

Notification to selected offeror

September 27,2024

Estimated project commencement date

USIP may adjust dates in the schedule or cancel this RFP at any time prior to contract award.

Evaluation Criteria

Proposals will be evaluated based on the criteria below. For more detail on each submission requirement, see Section IV of this RFP. The USIP Selection Committee will review all proposals received on time using the evaluation criteria established below based on the best value offered to USIP. The Selection Committee reserves the right to reject any or all proposals, in whole or in part, to award multiple contracts, and/or to enter into negotiations with any party, in the best interests of the Institute.

Evaluation Criteria

Weight

Technical Narrative Proposal

Importance and Impact of Proposal

30%

Overall Approach & Methodology

25%

Key Personnel, Specific Expertise & Experience

25%

Cost Proposal

20%

Certification Page
(Please submit with the proposal)

A. The Offeror certifies that: (1) Prices in the offer have been arrived at independently without consultation, communication, or agreement with any other competitor; (2) Prices in the offer have not been and will not be knowingly disclosed by the offeror, directly or indirectly, to any other competitor before bid opening or contract award unless otherwise required by law; and (3) No attempt has been made or will be made by the offeror to induce any other competitor to/not to submit an offer for the purpose of restricting competition.

B. Has the offeror received funding from USIP? Yes/No
If yes, provide the grant or contract number and the offeror’s main point of contact at USIP:___________________________________________________________________________________

On Behalf of Offeror:

Name of Organization or Independent Contractor

Signature of Authorized Official

Printed Name of Authorized Official

Title

Date

How to apply

To apply for this position, please use the following URL:

https://ars2.equest.com/?response_id=15a4a577294054f92b0a9e6cffdae788