Service Consultancy- Baseline Assessment of Climate Change Adaptation and Rural Livelihoods Project (CARL)

The Organization

Afghanaid is a British humanitarian and development organization operating in Afghanistan. For close to forty years, we have worked with millions of deprived, excluded and vulnerable families in some of the poorest and most remote communities in Afghanistan. We build basic services, improve livelihoods, and strengthen the rights of women and children, help communities protect against natural disasters, adapt to climate change, and respond to humanitarian emergencies.

Our community-led approach gives ordinary Afghans a voice in their own development, making them active participants in shaping the future of their country. With our years of experience, the majority of the Afghan team, and our deep understanding of local, cultural and ethnic issues, we have earned great trust and respect among the communities we work alongside. This has allowed us access to some of the most underserved areas of the country.

The Project

Afghanistan is extremely vulnerable to the impacts of climate change due to its high sensitivity and low adaptive capacity. Climate projections for Afghanistan suggest a future of higher temperatures, reduced rainfall, higher evapotranspiration and increased frequency of extreme events such as droughts, storms, floods, landslides and avalanches. Climate-induced disasters are a major contributor to the rapid deterioration of the humanitarian situation. The past four decades of conflict in Afghanistan have had marked effects on the population’s capacity to adapt to the changing climate as traditional community-led natural resource management mechanisms have been eroded, resulting in the widespread degradation of Afghanistan’s natural resource base. High numbers of returnees from Pakistan and Iran are expected to further strain available natural resources in areas of destination, leading to an increase in internal incidents related disputes over land (and water). With 76% of the Afghan population reliant on agricultural livelihoods, the impact of climate change on agriculture is contributing to the country’s alarming levels of food insecurity and poverty. Farming communities lack the tools, knowledge and resources to adapt to climate change. Vulnerability to drought is exacerbated by a lack of appropriate irrigation infrastructure. The sustainability of agriculture and livestock livelihoods is undermined by inadequate provision of quality veterinary services and agricultural extension services. Vulnerability of rural livelihoods is also driven by low income generating opportunities, resulting from barriers to accessing markets and credit; lack of access to proper storage and processing facilities. Women and girls are disproportionately affected by the impacts of climate change and natural disasters in Afghanistan of as a result of social and political constraints on women’s economic participation. Household vulnerability is compounded by reliance on a single earner due to the exclusion of women from income generation opportunities. Today, the de facto authorities lack the funds, technical and operational capacity to implement vital NRM and climate adaptation measures. Many communities at risk of climate-induced disasters lack the infrastructure and response capacity they need. Following the Taliban takeover, aid flows have significantly shifted towards humanitarian relief. However, longer-term resilience-strengthening programming is needed to address the root causes of marginalised communities’ vulnerability, increase their resilience, and reduce their dependence on emergency aid.

The envisioned impact is that rural Afghan communities and households are more resilient to the impacts of climate change and natural disasters. The project has two interlinked outcomes: 1) Reduced loss of life, injury, and damage to communal and private assets resulting from climate change and natural disasters, and 2) Rural livelihoods are better adapted to climate change. The outcomes are achieved through the delivery of five outputs, detailed in the theory of change diagram below, which together form a comprehensive response to the challenges faced by climate-vulnerable communities.

To holistically address the multiple aspects of climate change vulnerability, the proposed action adopts a community-based approach to climate change adaptation (CCA) that combines integrated watershed management (IWM), ecosystems-based disaster risk reduction (Eco-DRR), disaster preparedness, climate resilient sustainable agriculture (CRSA) and agri-business development. The IWM and Eco-DRR interventions slow water run-off and improve soil and water conservation. This results in reduced risk of flood and drought, while community-based disaster preparedness capacity building further reduces communities’ vulnerability to natural disasters. The IWM and Eco-DRR interventions also result in improved groundwater levels and vegetation cover. This improved functioning of the natural resource base on which rural livelihoods depend provides the essential foundation for the project’s parallel investments in building climate-resilient rural livelihoods. Investments in climate resilient livelihoods and agri-business development will enable households to increase their production, diversify income streams, and earn higher incomes, thereby increasing the resilience of people’s livelihoods and their capacity to cope with future climate-induced shocks. Finally, in the absence of state capacity to implement CCA programming, and in recognition of the widespread lack of knowledge of CCA, the project will aim to maximise its reach and impact through knowledge building among key stakeholders at the national and subnational level. In doing so, these stakeholders will have improved capacity to support their members/beneficiaries in the implementation of CCA approaches.

The duration of the action is 48 months (01/05/2024 – 30/04/2028). The project takes a phased approach over the four year duration, with the IWM and Eco-DRR measures being implemented in years 1 and 2, and the rural livelihood components being introduced only from year 2 but scaling up in year 3 and 4.

An estimated 30,300 beneficiary households (from 250 communities across 35 micro-watersheds) are expected to benefit from the action through the implementation of IWM and Eco-DRR measures in their communities to reduce disaster risk and strengthen the resilience of the natural resource base on which rural communities depend for their livelihoods. Of these, 10,106 beneficiaries will benefit from direct livelihoods support (inputs and training).

Summary of Project Outcomes and Outputs

Overall Objective: To build the resilience of rural Afghan communities and households to the impacts of climate change and natural disasters.

Specific Objective 1: To reduce the risk of death, injury, and damage to communal & private assets resulting from climate change and natural disasters.

Specific Objective 2: To build the capacity of rural households to adapt their livelihoods to the impacts of climate change.

Output 1: Communities have improved capacity for Integrated Watershed Management (IWM) and Ecosystems-based Disaster Risk Reduction (Eco-DRR).

Output 2: Communities have strengthened capacity for disaster response.

Output 3: Men and women have improved skills, knowledge, and inputs for climate resilient rural livelihoods.

Output 4: Men and women have improved access to business support services, networks, markets and infrastructure for rural livelihoods, particularly for climate-resilient agricultural value chains.

Output 5: Improved knowledge of CCA among key stakeholders at the national and sub-national levels.

2. Purpose of the assignment

This consultancy assignment focuses on conducting a baseline assessment to gather comprehensive data, determining the base values of the project’s outcomes and impact, as specified in the project’s logical framework. In addition to setting baseline values, the assessment will include a situational analysis to evaluate the current socio-economic, agricultural, and environmental conditions of the target communities. This analysis will provide critical insights into community vulnerabilities and adaptive capacities. The baseline data will form the foundation for future evaluations, including midline and endline studies, to track progress and measure the project’s impact over time. The consultant will be provided with a full set of indicators and relevant documentation upon signing the contract but below are the impact and outcome level indicators for the CARL project:

Indicator

Impact Indicator 1: % and # of targeted households in the emergency/crisis/stress categories of the Livelihood Coping Strategy Index

Impact Indicator 2: # and % of targeted households whose livelihoods were disrupted or destroyed due to flood or drought in the past year

Impact Indicator 3: Number of food insecure people receiving EU and SDC assistance

Impact Indicator 4: Number of internally displaced people, returnees, or individuals from host communities protected or assisted with EU and SDC support

Outcome Indicator 1.1: # and % of WMGs to reach full maturity to maintain IWM/Eco-DRR measures in their communities and to conduct effective emergency response

Outcome Indicator 1.2: # and % of micro-watersheds benefiting from IWM/Eco-DRR measures introduced by the project

Outcome Indicator 1.3: # and % of targeted micro-watersheds with improved groundwater levels by the end of the project compared with the same month in Y1

Outcome Indicator 2.1: Areas of agricultural and pastoral ecosystems where sustainable management practices have been introduced with EU and SDC support (ha)

Outcome Indicator 2.2: # and % of targeted households that report increased income or offset spending through self-production of food as compared to the pre-project baseline

Outcome Indicator 4.1: Number of fairs and exhibitions attended by beneficiaries

Outcome Indicator 4.4: % of livestock owners in target communities who report accessing veterinary services in the past year

Outcome Indicator 5.1: Number of key stakeholder representatives given exposure visits to project sites

Outcome Indicator 5.2: Number and % of targeted stakeholder representatives who report having improved knowledge of CCA approaches

The consultant will leverage the baseline process as a learning opportunity for the consortium ensuring their active involvement in all phases of the assessment. This includes participation in tool development, data collection, data cleaning, analysis, and reporting.

3. Scope of work

The baseline study will cover selected districts and communities in the provinces targeted by the consortium. The consultant/team will be responsible for:

• Developing in close collaboration with the CARL project team a detailed baseline study methodology, including sampling design, data collection tools, and data analysis plan.
• Conducting primary data collection through surveys, focus group discussions (FGDs), and key informant interviews (KIIs) with community members, local leaders, and other stakeholders based on the agree baseline methodology.
• Collecting/reference secondary data from relevant sources to complement primary data.
• Analysing the data and preparing a comprehensive baseline report that includes key findings, conclusions, and recommendations.

The baseline study is to be conducted in 4 provinces with the following target districts and implementing partners:

• Afghanaid: Ghor (Ferozkoh, Al Farooq, Pasaband, Saghar)
• Danish Refugee Council (DRC): Nangarhar province (3 districts from among Achin, Pachir Agam, Spinghar and Haska Mina) and Nuristan province (2 districts from among Wama, Paroon and Kantiwa)
• The Liaison Office (TLO): Ghazni province (4 districts: Jaghatu, Zana Khan, Rashidan and Khogyani)

Responsibilities of the Consultant/Firm:

• Develop a detailed assessment plan, including methodology, sampling strategy, and data collection tools.
• Organise logistics and conduct the baseline autonomously, engaging Afghanaid staff at every step of the process. Engage high-quality consultants and surveyors.
• Coordinate with the teams of Afghanaid and CARL partners (TLO and DRC). Travel to the project’s field locations, complying with Afghanaid and its partners’ policies and security protocols
• Provide exposure opportunities to Afghanaid M&E staff throughout the various phases of assessment process, including the development of data collection tools, data collection, data cleaning and analysis, and report writing
• Collect both quantitative and qualitative data to assess the project’s outcomes and impacts.
• Analyse the data to establish baseline values for key indicators.
• Prepare a detailed report of the findings, including statistical analysis and qualitative insights.Ensure on-time delivery of the assessment report by 31 December 2024, with at least 2 review rounds (1 week per review) by Afghanaid and its partners prior to the final deadline
• Provide actionable recommendations for future project phases or similar initiatives.

Afghanaid:

• Introduce the consultant (team) to the field teams
• Introduce the consultant (team) to the target communities
• Introduce the Afghanaid M&E staff who will be included in the baseline process.

Payment:

• 30% upon successful review and approval/acceptance of the inception report.
• 30% on completion of data collection and field activities
• 40% on submission and acceptance of the final report and other deliverables as listed below

The budget for the baseline study will cover consultancy fees, data collection costs, travel expenses, and other relevant costs.

4. Timeline

The study will take maximum 2 months, with a final deadline of 31 December 2024, and is expected to start as soon as possible. The consultant will develop a detailed implementation plan for the baseline, covering key activities, timelines, and deliverables within the 2-month timeframe. The plan should include field preparation, training, data collection, and reporting, along with key milestones such as the review of the inception report and presentations of findings.

Due to the seasonal nature of Agriculture in Afghanistan, the baseline assessment will be conducted towards cultivation season, before the end of the winter. This timeline is expected to capture majority of agriculture-related project information. This should be the basis for preparing the draft report.

5. Methodology

The consultant will be required to propose a suitable methodology as part of their technical proposal, based on their understanding of the baseline study. While the baseline assessment should employ a mixed-methods approach, combining both quantitative and qualitative data collection techniques, the consulting firm is expected to provide a detailed technical methodology, including the proposed sampling strategy that aligns with the project’s objectives. A geo-tagged photo report will also be generated using GIS software to visually document key project locations and provide additional context to the data collected.

The proposed methodology should consider, but is not limited to, the following approaches:

• Quantitative Data: Structured household surveys to assess socio-economic conditions, agricultural practices, and climate change adaptation measures.
• Qualitative Data: Focus Group Discussions (FGDs) and Key Informant Interviews (KIIs) to explore community perceptions, knowledge, and attitudes towards climate change and resilience-building activities.
• Secondary Data Review: Analysis of existing reports, government data, and other relevant literature to provide context and enhance the findings.

The sampling strategy should ensure representative coverage of the target population, including a good statistical representation of the 30,300 beneficiary households across 250 communities and 35 micro-watersheds. The methodology should emphasize data triangulation to strengthen the validity of the findings.

The team of consultants will ensure the wide representation of the project stakeholders, considering the inclusion of those disadvantaged, minority groups, persons with disabilities, as appropriate.

The assessment will adhere to the highest ethical standards, respecting informed consent, confidentiality, and the rights of all participants. It will also incorporate a human rights-based approach, gender equality considerations, and the inclusion of persons with disabilities.

6. Indicative Learning Questions

The following learning questions will guide the CARL project’s baseline and may be refined collaboratively with the consultant and project team during the consultant on boarding.

• What climate-resilient agricultural practices (e.g., crop rotation, drought-resistant seeds, soil/water conservation) implemented under the CARL project are most effective in improving yields and household income in rural Afghan communities? Are there other techniques we should consider applying?
• To what extent are the Integrated Watershed Management Plans (IWMPs) driven by community leadership, how inclusive are the IWMCs (e.g. in terms of gender), and what opportunities exist to strengthen inclusive community engagement in the planning, execution, and long-term sustainability?
• To what extent does the CARL project equitably benefit landless participants compared to landowners, and what targeted strategies can be implemented to enhance the inclusion and livelihood outcomes of landless households in future projects beyond CFW?
• How effective is the IWM approach covering all target communities, as opposed to the nucleus approach previously taken by Afghanaid, and what impact does this have on the water table level?
• How effective is the project in mobilizing private funding and investments by the target communities? (i.e. do farmers increasingly invest in irrigation infrastructure, etc.)
• How does the widespread use of solar-powered pumps impact water availability, and is there a risk they draw more or deeper water than our watershed structures can replenish? How can we balance leveraging our watershed development work for intensive agriculture while ensuring equitable access to water for all, including those without pumps, and develop a strategy to monitor and maintain this balance?
• To what extent does our approach/training enable producer group members to operate as a collective, and to what extent are groups able to take advantage of the collective functions of the producer group (in terms of sharing costs/production, accessing markets, collective bargaining)?

7. Reporting Line

The consultant will work closely with the CARL consortium M&L Specialist. The consultant will work closely with the Afghanaid M&E team in all phases of the baseline assessment.

8. Deliverables

The consultant/team will be expected to deliver the following:

1. Inception Report: Outlining the study design, methodology, data collection tools, and a detailed work plan.
2. Draft Baseline Report and raw dataset: Presenting preliminary findings, including data analysis, raw dataset and initial conclusions.
3. Final Baseline Report: Incorporating feedback from Afghanaid and other stakeholders, with comprehensive findings, conclusions, and actionable recommendations.
4. Submission of a geo-tagged photo report capturing high-resolution images of project areas, including date/location stamps and diverse representation.
5. Presentation of Findings: A PowerPoint presentation summarising key findings and recommendations for internal stakeholders.

The following deliverables are expected from the baseline assessment:

1- Inception Report, covering at minimum:

• Introduction
• Methodology and approaches: design, the sources, methods for data collection and data collection tools, details of how the assessment will be inclusive and reaching women, people with disability, the elderly and others, work plan with the detailed timeframe and team structure, points of contacts including for field deployment and ground work.
• Quality Assurance
• Data Analysis
• Ethical considerations
• Any revisions needed in the budget or work plan for the assessment job
• Any other reflections of the consultants for the project

2- Draft Narrative Report

• A first draft report, followed by a week of review time by Afghanaid and its partners
• A second draft report, incorporating comments from the first review, followed by a week of review time by Afghanaid and its partners

3- Final Narrative Report, covering at minimum:

• Executive Summary
• Introduction: project background, assessment objectives
• Methodology: the quantitative and qualitative methods used, sampling strategy, data analysis.
• Findings
• Challenges, Lessons Leant and Recommendations
• Conclusions
• Annexes

4- Full survey database, including all tools used and any supporting documentation produced over the course of the baseline assessment.

5- PowerPoint presentation of the assessment covering the inception and findings, to be scheduled by Afghanaid and the consultant after acceptance of the inception report/Final Narrative Report by the end of December 2024

6- Photo Report (original format using GIS technology to present the base situation of the target communities) taken during the assessment

Photo Report

The baseline project assessment places great importance on the submission of a comprehensive geo-tagged photo report, which serves as a crucial component of the baseline process. This report is generated from a GIS software and tasked with visually documenting the tangible outcomes and profound base values of the locations that have are selected for the project’s implementation.

1. Ensure clear, high-resolution images suitable for digital use.
2. Provide date and location stamps for each photograph. Add descriptive captions for context and identification.
3. Obtain consent for individuals appearing in the photographs
4. Represent diverse genders, ages, and ethnicities in the photos.

Evaluation Criteria

Proposals will be evaluated based on the following criteria:

• Technical approach and methodology (40%)
• Relevant experience and qualifications of the consultant/team (30%)
• Cost-effectiveness and budget feasibility (20%)
• Quality of previous work samples (10%)

How to apply

The Consultancy Assignment

This consultancy assignment aims to undertake a baseline assessment to collect comprehensive data, determining the base values for the project’s outcomes, and impact as outlined in the project’s logical framework. The baseline values will provide a foundation for the project’s inception. In later stages, the baseline data will be compared with midline and endline studies to assess the overall effectiveness and impact of the project. This comparison will enable the consortium to measure changes over time and evaluate the impact of the project. The baseline will employ rigorous data collection methods to ensure accuracy and efficiency. The analysis will assess the current situation, identifying key trends, gaps, and changes that provide a foundation for monitoring progress throughout the project. In addition to establishing baseline values, the study will conduct a situational analysis to assess current agricultural practices, disaster preparedness, women’s economic participation, market access, and natural resource management. This analysis will provide key insights into community vulnerabilities and opportunities, ensuring the project addresses local needs effectively.

The detailed Terms of Reference (ToR) is attached to this call.

Objectives of the Baseline Study

The primary objective of the baseline study is to establish a reference point for key indicators against which the progress and impact of the Climate Change Adaptation and Rural Livelihoods (CARL) Project can be measured. Specific objectives include:

• Establish baseline values for key indicators to provide a reference point for measuring future progress and impact of the CARL project.
• Conduct a comprehensive situational analysis to assess community vulnerabilities, adaptive capacities, and existing climate change adaptation and natural resource management practices in the targeted provinces.
• Ensure active engagement of M&E staff in the baseline process to build practical skills and lay the foundation for effective project monitoring and evaluation.

Submission of proposals

The application should include:

• Technical Proposal
• Financial Proposal

Requirements for the Proposals

The proposal should encompass the following elements (maximum length, excluding CVs: 20 pages):

Technical Proposal

• A brief outline of the baseline assessment approach, methodology, sampling and indicative research questions (maximum 6 pages).
• A proposed work-plan and timeframe for the assessment, delineating the phases, the number of consultants, staff and the duration of workdays (maximum 3 pages).
• Identification of potential challenges and dependencies likely to affect the study’s implementation, along with proposed solutions (maximum 1 page).
• The proposal should outline strategies to ensure data quality, including data verification methods, adherence to ethical standards and quality control mechanisms (maximum 2 pages).
• An account of relevant previous assignments that showcase the required skills and experience outlined above (maximum 2 pages).
• A summary of the proposed assessment team, including the allocation of workdays for each team member (maximum 2 pages).
• CVs of the lead consultant and other key members of the team, highlighting relevant previous assignments and clients (CVs to be provided separately; maximum 3 pages per CV).
• Contacts of at least three references (maximum 1 page).
• Attach recent relevant report samples from at least two recent organisations where the services of the consultant/ team or firm have been utilized

Financial Proposal

• The consultancy firm shall furnish a budget breakdown, delineating consultant fees and logistical expenses. The financial proposal should include provisions covering all costs associated with the assignment, including applicable taxes in USD (maximum 3 pages).

Expertise, experience and qualification

The selected consultancy firm should possess the following qualifications:

• The lead consultant must hold a Master’s or Ph.D. in climate science, agriculture, environmental studies, rural development, monitoring and evaluation, or a related field, with at least 10 years of experience in field research and project evaluation in areas such as climate change adaptation, community development, or disaster risk reduction.
• Proven expertise in conducting baseline studies and situational analysis using both quantitative and qualitative methods, especially in rural and climate-resilient contexts.
• Strong analytical skills, with proficiency in simultaneous data collection across multiple provinces and expertise in digital data collection platforms (e.g., Kobo Collect) to ensure high-quality data collection.
• An in-depth understanding of Afghanistan’s socio-economic and environmental conditions is required.
• Demonstrated experience in delivering comprehensive, high-quality reports in English, on time and in line with project requirements.
• A history of successful baseline assessments related to rural livelihoods, agriculture, value chain development, watershed management, and disaster risk reduction, supported by positive references from past clients.
• Access to a gender-balanced team of technical and field staff across Afghanistan, with proven experience in enumerator recruitment, selection, training, and remote supervision, preferably with an established roster of local consultants in the target areas.
• Experience in applying gender-sensitive and culturally appropriate evaluation approaches, with strong attention to detail and excellent communication skills for engaging diverse audiences.

Assessment of the Proposal

The evaluation of the proposal will be based on the following criteria:

• Alignment with the scope of work and study objectives outlined in the Terms of Reference.
• Demonstrated experience of the firm/consultants.
• Previous experience of key consultants involved in the project.
• Value for money.

How to Apply

National/International firms/individuals that meet the above requirements should submit their applications to jobs@afghanaid.org.uk by 4:30 pm (Kabul time) on 19th October 2024, including the following as the subject line: “CARL Baseline Assessment”. Applications without the proper subject line or submitted after the deadline will not be considered. Due to the high volume of applications we receive, we are unable to respond to every application. If you have not heard from us within 3 weeks of the deadline, then you have not been successful for shortlisting.

Interested consultants/teams are invited to submit the following documents:

• A technical proposal outlining the approach and methodology for the baseline study.
• A financial proposal with a detailed budget breakdown.
• CVs of the consultant/team members highlighting relevant experience.
• Organizational profile

At least three (3) samples of previous baseline study reports or relevant studies.

If you have any questions regarding this request for proposal, please email jobs@afghanaid.org.uk no later than 4:30 pm (Kabul Time) on 13th October 2024 so that we have time to respond to your request before the deadline for applications.